Comparison of the ECMWF rain prediction with actual measurements for 25.11.2017 on La Palma

Here is a summary how well did the ECMWF weather model predict the rainfall yesterday, Saturday 2017-11-25 from 0:00 h UTC to 23:59 h UTC for the island of La Palma. We compare the predictions of the 6 ECMWF 12:00 UTC-runs preceding the rain event to the actual measurement of

The approximate predictions of the ECMWF model for the average 24h rainfall on La Palma islands for Saturday were, according to, rounded to 5 mm:

  • 2017-11-19 12:00 UTC+156h: 45 mm
  • 2017-11-20 12:00 UTC+132h: 30 mm
  • 2017-11-21 12:00 UTC+108h: 45 mm
  • 2017-11-22 12:00 UTC+084h: 50 mm
  • 2017-11-23 12:00 UTC+060h: 30 mm
  • 2017-11-24 12:00 UTC+036h: 25 mm
HDmeteo rain interpolation for 2017-11-25. Average is 22.41 mm. Maximum 56.15 mm. The plot does not include data from manually operated pluviometers.

The measured rain average for this interval was according to the interpolation on the land surface of La Palma of all available private and public weather stations of the island:

  • 22.41 mm

The model over predicted the actual rainfall until its last run from Friday noon where it predicted 25 mm, which is very close to the actual measurement of 22.41 mm.



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